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Today’s world is markedly different from that of two years ago—and one area where this is clear is the reduction in global aid and development funding. Mid-2025 OECD projections estimated that the world’s least developed countries could receive 13–25% less in bilateral aid compared to 2024, with countries in sub-Saharan Africa potentially seeing reductions of 16–28%.
In this stricter funding environment, difficult questions arise. For those working on the frontlines of humanitarian aid and development, the instinct may be to prioritise direct assistance and direct all available resources to those in immediate need. Those of us working in impact evaluation may therefore ask whether monitoring and evaluation (M&E) can be justified when funds available to support people affected by crises are already limited.
Yet the answer remains clear: M&E is essential. In these complex times, the need for clear and credible evaluation of programmes and their impact may be more important than ever.
The value of measuring impact in lean times
When resources are scarce, understanding programme effectiveness becomes even more important. Clients need to ensure that the activities that remain after budgets are reduced deliver real, measurable change—because they may not have the resources to try again if they fall short.
At the same time, crises and conflicts continue to proliferate. From the deepening climate crisis to humanitarian emergencies in Sudan, Gaza and Afghanistan, the war in Ukraine, and rising energy and food prices, the scale and complexity of global challenges continues to grow.
There is no shortage of well-intentioned actors ready to lead interventions. But to know whether these efforts produce meaningful outcomes, we must be able to measure their impact—setting clear standards, tracking progress against defined goals, and adapting based on evidence. This is the role of impact evaluation.
Accountability: a reminder of good in the world
Monitoring and evaluation is often seen as a technical exercise focused on indicators and reporting. In practice, it also strengthens accountability and trust.
Effective M&E provides a framework for demonstrating that actions—and their consequences—matter. It allows organisations to show that programmes are achieving results and that resources are being used responsibly.
Evaluation also creates space to recognise where programmes fall short, enabling learning and improvement. In a world where development efforts are sometimes questioned, credible evidence of impact helps sustain confidence that positive change remains possible.
Learning exchanges between private and public sectors
In recent years, private sector actors have begun placing greater emphasis on impact assessment, increasingly learning from the experience the humanitarian and development sectors have built in monitoring, evaluation, and accountability.
Development banks are exploring ways to align investments with peacebuilding and fragility agendas. Major corporations—particularly in the mineral and extractive industries—are also seeking to understand whether their social programmes deliver meaningful outcomes for the communities in which they operate.
This cross-pollination opens opportunities for dialogue, mutual learning, and shared responsibility—principles that underpin the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). In a world facing interconnected challenges, collaborative solutions are increasingly important.
Within crises, the potential for growth
Periods of constraint can also prompt reflection. By analysing what works, what does not, and why, organisations can refine their approaches, scale successful initiatives, and avoid repeating past mistakes.
Adopting this perspective allows adversity to become a catalyst for learning and adaptation. It encourages organisations to invest in the systems and capacities needed to respond more effectively—both now and in the future.
In this sense, impact evaluation is not a luxury but a necessity when navigating periods of resource scarcity.
For INCAS, M&E is about honesty, adaptability and action
For over 20 years, INCAS experts have applied their knowledge and experience to ensure that M&E tools and processes are effectively used to measure—and improve—programme impact in fragile and conflict-affected contexts around the world.
Our work has supported a wide range of actors, including financial institutions, companies, government and multilateral agencies, and civil society organisations.
INCAS’s M&E work is grounded in honest conversations with clients to identify practices that work well and those that could be improved. The most transformative experiences—and the ones that sustain progress—are those that allow organisations to learn and adapt, remaining agile and focused on positive action even during turbulent times.